Tuesday 2 April 2013

Forecasting Methods- Project Performance Concept

Determine variances. Earned value management uses specific equations to quantify variances. PMP prep classes will include exercises on this. Determine the impact the variances may have on the cost and schedule of the project and well as in other areas.

Forecasting Methods: Forecasting is the process of predicting future project performance based the current performance to date. PDU for PMI credit will include forecasting method concepts. Forecasting methods may be classified in the following categories:

Time series Method: This method uses historical data to estimate future outcomes.

Causal/Econometric Methods: This method assumes that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence what is being forecasted. For example, sales of ice cream might be associated with weather conditions. Examples include regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), and econometrics.

Judgmental Methods: These methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions, and probability estimates. Examples include composite surveys, Delphi method, and technology forecasting.

Communication Methods: Status review meetings can be used to discuss information and the progress and performance of the project. A reporting system provides a way for the project manager to convey information to the stakeholders. PDU for PMI will include communication methods. This can be done using table reporting, spreadsheet analysis, and presentations.

Requested Changes to some aspect of the project are often generated as a result of project performance analysis. Requested changes are processed through the integrated change control process.

Recommended Corrective Actions include changes needed to bring the expected future performance of the project in line with the project management plan. Recommended corrective actions are documented and become part of the historical database for both the project and the performing organization. Documented corrective action includes:

The Causes of Issues
The Reasoning Behind Chosen Corrective Actions
Other Performance Reporting Lessons Learned

In this task, the project manager manages changes to the project scope, schedule and costs, updating the project plan. In addition, the project manager communicates approved changes to the project team. The objective of this task is to ensure the revised project goals are met. PMP Prep Classes will include exercises on this.

Configuration Identification provides the foundation in which product configuration is defined and also verified. Configuration identification also provides the basis for how products and documents are labeled and how changes are managed.

Configuration Status Accounting effectively captures, stores, and accesses information regarding configuration items and changes to configuration. Configuration verification and Auditing verifies that configuration items are correct, and that related changes are properly tracked and implemented.

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9 comments:

  1. These are very important methods especially for those who are planning to take pmp certification. Thank you for sharing this one. pmp exam prep course

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    1. Tag: PM201A51. Let me share all of you about #5 Tips for Project Management Success,, I hope you enjoy it

      1. Plan your day using time management techniques

      As a project manager, time management skills are essential because you are dealing with a wide range of tasks that demand a quick turnaround time. Planning your day will go a long way in keeping you organized and increasing your productivity. Assist your task planning by using project management software which helps you track the work of you and your team.

      If you are not very tech savvy, a simple to-do list can also be a great organizational tool. Prioritize your most important tasks by putting them at the top of the list and less important ones at the bottom. Having a visual plan of your daily tasks helps to keep you on track and aware of time.

      Related post: Free ebook 104 secrets to become a great project manager

      2. Include stakeholders in important project conversations

      While you will have plenty of responsibilities regarding the project, don’t neglect your clients.

      Good communication is essential is keeping both parties informed of project progression, curtailing scope creep, and apprised of changing requirements. Some clients may have different expectations when it comes to communication, so make sure to establish the frequency and type of communication (like emails, phone calls, and face-to-face conversations) at the beginning of your project.

      Establishing communication expectations early helps alleviate stakeholder uncertainty about communication frequency and delivery.

      3. Regularly communicate with your team

      Daily team communication helps keep misunderstandings and unclear requirements under control. Keeping your team informed in every step of the project is essential to project management success.

      For example, a study published by Procedia Technology found that good communication skills were the cornerstone of project management. The study examined over 300 “construction project managers, architects, construction managers, engineers and quantity surveyors” and their successes and failures on various construction projects.

      4. Anticipate project setbacks

      Even the best-laid plans often go awry.

      Remember that even with a high amount of planning and attention to detail, your project may still encounter some challenges. Pay attention to complaints from stakeholders or colleagues, and other warning signs, like a missed deadline or cost overrun, that there may be a problem.

      Preventing a crisis will keep your project running smoothly, save you a lot of time, and keep you, your team, and your stakeholders confident in progressing with the project.

      Unfortunately not every complication can be avoided. Crisis management skills are essential for dealing with the unexpected. Project managers need to be flexible and pragmatic. Improvise and make sharp decisions when needed.

      Related post: 92 free project management templates

      5. Stay focused on the details

      A common problem project managers encounter is having the project aims not aligned with the organization’s objectives. A great project manager will strategize a plan for the project to lead back to the overall success of the business.

      Know your project’s scope by heart and avoid wandering outside of the project’s requirements. It’s too easy to get lost in minor details and forget what your focus is, so a well-planned project scope is essential for success.

      And final, you should use KPI to measure effectiveness of the project, here are full list: 76 project management KPIs



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